Listening to experts

 

I don’t know anything about cars or how they work. I am aware that there is a thing called an internal combustion engine, and I have the general impression that the process involves very tiny and carefully controlled explosions, and something called pistons that go up and down with the tiny explosions, and gears connecting to other gears,  and that somehow all of that equipment converts fuel into energy into motion. But I have no real clue how any of it works.

 

Let’s imagine that I begin to have trouble with stopping the car, and when I go to the mechanic they tell me that the brake line has a leak and the brake pads and drums need replacement.

 

Now: Imagine that I didn’t trust that assessment for some reason. So I take it to another mechanic, and another, and another, and all of them tell me the same thing: Fix the brake line, pads and drums need replacement.

Let’s further imagine that, upon hearing that money is tight, the mechanics even offer to do the repairs for free, because they’re concerned that I will be a danger to myself and other drivers if I try to keep driving the car in this state. It’s ultimately self-interest that motivates them, because they don’t want to drive on a road with someone whose brakes don’t work, in case I end up harming them or someone they care about. The fact that they have good brakes, after all, is not going to fully protect them and their loved ones from me and my bad brakes. So it’s not pure altruism that drives them to offer the solution for free… but still, it means my problem can be addressed and it won’t cost me anything.

 

But I still don’t like the answer, so I go on Facebook and ask my friends and family what to do about my car. One of my friends tells me “Brake drums are a hoax by Big Auto to make money. Your real problem is that you didn’t feed the magic elves. Put some sugar in the gas tank, that’ll fix it”. And a bunch of my other friends tell me the same thing. One of them posts a link to someone who says he’s a mechanic and is wearing greasy overalls, who swears by the “elven gas tank sugar” solution.

 

However, none of these friends are mechanics. None of them know any more about how cars work than I do – possibly even LESS than I do. I don’t really understand what a brake drum is, but I DO know the elf solution is unlikely to be correct, and I DO know that sugar in the gas tank is not a good idea. And it seems unlikely that this one dude who says he’s a mechanic is right, when all the other mechanics say it’s the brake line, pads, and drums.

So:

Should I take the advice of people known to be experts? Or should I take the advice of people who don’t know anything, who are getting their advice from people who likewise don’t know anything?

 

It’s obvious how ridiculous it would be, in this scenario, to believe people who don’t know what they’re talking about, and ignore people who do. Anyone with any sense at all, whether they know about the subject or not, would tell me to listen to the experts rather than to the people contradicting experts. Even if the people spreading misinformation are ALSO claiming to be experts.

 

And yet, 1/3 of the country thinks they know better than doctors and scientists when it comes to vaccines…